AMWATCH article: Sweden’s oldest fixed income hedge fund attracts new interest
Fund Management
Sweden’s oldest fixed income hedge fund attracts new institutional interest
Nordic institutional investors are returning to fixed income investments, says Thomas Pohjanen, who co-manages the Mellby Gård-backed fixed income hedge fund, Excalibur.
Thomas Pohjanen, co-manages the Excalibur Fixed Income fund. | Photo: Excalibur
Against the backdrop of higher interest rates, Thomas Pohjanen, manager of fixed income hedge fund Excalibur, sees continued opportunities in a market that has long been difficult to navigate for fixed income managers.
“The increased interest in fixed income investments coincides with the central banks’ normalization of key interest rates in the wake of the inflation shock. The asset class offers an alternative to equities that did not exist under the zero interest rate policy,” he says:
“This has resulted in annual client inflows of between 20-30 % for the fund. The fact that we have managed to navigate the fixed-income markets reasonably well over the past four years, with an average return of 6.5 % per year, also contributes to increased client interest. It is mainly smaller institutions and foundations that are showing interest in investing with us.”
Björn Suurwee, co-manager of Excalibur. | Photo: Excalibur
Rune Andersson’s investment company Mellby Gård is behind the fixed income fund. It has been managed by Thomas Pohjanen and Deputy CEO of Excalibur Asset Management, partner Björn Suurwee, since its inception in April 2001. The fund was launched with the goal of generating an annual return of 3-5 % above the benchmark.
In today’s environment of higher market rates and rising volatility, new opportunities are opening up for a fixed income hedge fund with a flexible mandate to generate returns in different markets, Pohjanen says.
“In the fund, we have been working to position ourselves to benefit from the inflationary impulses that are slowly but surely subsiding. With inflation falling, quarter by quarter, we have seen a positive return of around 4% so far this year. This reflects our belief that inflation is stabilizing, allowing us to navigate the market in a more predictable manner.”
As for future developments in the fixed income market, Pohjanen does not expect central banks to go back to the low levels seen before the rate-hike cycle.
“Central banks don’t seem to be in a hurry to cut rates back to the low levels we’ve seen in the past. Lessons have been learned from the years of zero interest rates and heavy quantitative easing, and it is likely that we will see a more balanced monetary policy going forward. ”
Pohjanen does not believe there is any reason to expect drastic cuts from the Swedish central bank, the Riksbank, in the near future.
“Given the weak development of the Swedish krona and the challenges that come with a weaker currency, I think the Riksbank will prefer a more cautious approach. A currency that is too weak could lead to us importing inflation from abroad, which would be harmful to the Swedish economy.”
No clear signs of recession in the US
In terms of the US, Pohjanen believes that relatively high real interest rates are holding back demand and that the Federal Reserve can be expected to taper interest rates over time.
“When we look at the employment figures, especially in the US, we have seen a clear rise in unemployment. The US labor market has been expanding faster than new jobs have been created, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.4 % to 4.3 %. Despite this, there are no clear signs that the US economy is heading into a recession. Instead, it appears that the decline in interest rates and inflation are stabilizing factors.”
According to Pohjanen, several Fed members have argued that the above factors are reason enough to start considering a tapering of interest rates.
“The US currently has very high real interest rates compared to Europe, and this gap between the policy rate and inflation will, over time, depress demand, especially among households with fewer financial resources,” says Pohjanen.
Link to the AMWATCH: Sweden’s oldest fixed income hedge fund attracts new institutional interest
Link to the PDF article: Sweden’s oldest fixed income hedge fund attracts new institutional interest